Forums » News and Announcements

Week 6 Patriots vs Chiefs advanced stats:

    • 297 posts
    November 12, 2018 9:22 AM EET

     New England could be in for a shootout against Kansas City On Sunday New England Patriots Womens Hoodie , two of the best teams in football will go at each other in a highly anticipated prime time matchup: the 3-2 New England Patriots will host the 5-0 Kansas City Chiefs in a game that will have major implications on the AFC and could shape the playoff picture further down the line. A Chiefs victory would cement the squad as the front runner for the conference’s number one seed, a Patriots win would give the team an advantage over one of its rivals.But before looking too far ahead, let’s analyze the game ahead and some of the advanced stats heading into it (courtesy of SB Nation’s Bill Connelly; for his methodology please click here).Patriots offense vs Chiefs defenseNormal down and distance in the open fieldThe Patriots improved their standard down success rate and first down percentages noticeably when compared to last week. Going against a Chiefs defense that gives up 56.2% of needed yardage on the average given down, the team should therefore also be able to move the football well. Furthermore, it might even be able to improve its big play percentage against a unit that has had some issues stopping big plays from happening. But while Kansas City struggles some in the open field – between its own 30 and the opposing 10 – the team is very good on third down.Backed Up Situations Near the Goal LineNew England’s success rate while being backed up inside its own 10-yard line took a hit against the Indianapolis Colts but the team has had some success in this area before last Thursday. Meanwhile, an interception in week one still hurts the turnover rate. The Chiefs, on the other hand, have also not been world beaters when having their opponent pinned deep in its own territory – mostly because a team that rarely punts, does not get a lot of opportunities to improve in this area.Red ZoneThe Patriots offense continues to improve in the red area (inside an opponent’s 30-yard line), especially when it comes to the success rate inside the 10: New England improved from 41.7% a week ago to 57.1%. The team’s week six opponent, on the other hand, has been mostly mediocre in the red zone. One statistic stands out, though: turnover rate. Kansas City’s defense has been able to produce takeaways on 9.5% of plays inside its own 10-yard line. In a game that could very well turn into a shootout, limiting mistakes in this part of the field is crucial for Tom Brady and the Patriots.Third DownsDuring yesterday’s press conference, Patriots head coach Bill Belichick pointed out that the Chiefs defense has had success in third down situations. The team has indeed been successful in some third downs, especially when it comes to stopping third-and-longs as well as third-and-shorts. The latter could pose a problem for a New England squad that has had its problems with converting on third and less than a yard.Blitz SituationsTeams that play from ahead usually find themselves in more defensive passing situations. The Chiefs are undoubtably one of those teams, and one that has fared well in such situations. When it blitz downs – obvious passing downs specified as first-and-18 or more, second-and-14 or more, and third-and-3 or more – the team has limited opponents’ success this year. The Patriots, meanwhile, have had similar success. Again, it can be seen that both New England’s offense and Kansas City’s defense have had issues when it comes to big plays.Patriots defense vs Chiefs offenseNormal down and distance in the open fieldThe Patriots defense continues to improve in the open field but it will face its biggest challenge yet. Kansas City continuously moves the football well on any given down between its own 10 and the opponents’ 30, earning a 52.6% success rating – one of the best in the NFL. New England has been inconsistent in this area but has had success in others, especially one that is a strength of the Chiefs: big plays (plays that gain more than 20 yards). This will be a matchup of strength versus strength.Backed Up Situations Near the Goal LineNew England’s defense and Kansas City’s offense also match up rather evenly when it comes to backed-up situations: both teams have had some success in this area of the field – inside the offense’s own 10-yard line – which could make for an interesting battles if situations like this come along.Red ZoneWhile the Patriots remain an inconsistent defensive team in the red zone, the Chiefs field arguably the best red area offense in all of football. With the exception of the area between the 21 and 30 Womens Customized New England Patriots Jerseys , Patrick Mahomes and company have had plenty of success no matter the situation. Not only has the team been able to move the football well, it also has limited its mistakes and not turned the football over deep in opponents’ territory. Safe to say that execution in this part of the field will be a key for New England on Sunday.Third DownsDespite fielding the NFL’s most prolific offense, the Chiefs actually find themselves in third-and-longs rather often: on 61.0% of their 53 third down attempts the team has had to gain more than seven yards. As can be seen in the graphic above, though, distance has hardly ever been a problem for Kansas City as the team still has a 30.6% conversion rate in situations like this. New England’s defense, on the other hand, has had its fare share of problems when faced with third downs. The team ranks just 26th in the league, failing to get off the field on 44.6% of third downs.Blitz SituationsIn case you haven’t heard it it yet: the Chiefs’ passing offense is pretty good. Even when the team is likely to throw the football while playing from behind the sticks, it hardly ever can be stopped. Headed by weapons like Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, and Sammy Watkins, Kansas City is able to consistently generate yardage in long-distance downs. Once the Patriots defense gets its opponents in usually favorable situations like this one, it needs to find a way to limit big plays to sustain drives – and again hold on third down.If the advanced statistics are an indication, the Patriots and Chiefs are in for an offensive battle. For the home team, the game could very much come down to execution in some key areas:Can the Patriots defense get off the field on third down?Can the Patriots defense limit big plays?Can the Patriots offense take advantage of the Chiefs’ inability to stop big plays?Can the Patriots win in the red zone on both sides of the ball?If New England is able to accomplish most of those things, it could very well sway the outcome of the projected shootout in its favor. One of the NFL's most formidable fronts is off to a slow start.The Jacksonville Jaguars, who ranked second in the NFL with 55 sacks in 2017, have four in two games — on pace for 32 this season. Players insist the issue is all about the schedule and not any "Sacksonville" shortcomings.The Jaguars (2-0) have faced veteran quarterbacks Eli Manning and Tom Brady, both savvy enough to get rid of the football quickly and avoid the pressure that defines Jacksonville's defense. The result: A relatively pedestrian nine quarterback hurries in eight quarters.Jacksonville hopes to end the trend against AFC South rival Tennessee on Sunday. It's hardly a given considering the Titans (1-1) have allowed a league-leading one sack. But they also could be without starting offensive tackles Taylor Lewan (concussion) and Jake Conklin (knee). Conklin missed the first two games while recovering from a knee injury sustained in the postseason.Making matters worse for Tennessee, backup Dennis Kelly (illness) was hospitalized last weekend and could miss a second straight game."They do have a good O-line, but we'll see this week," Jaguars defensive tackle Malik Jackson said with a sly grin.Jacksonville is clearly frustrated by its sack totals, but quick to point out that opponents are sliding protections, chipping defensive ends with backs and tight ends, and even sending out as few as two receivers."It's kind of like www.patriotsauthorizedshop.com ;, 'OK, if you want to max protect, you've got five guys covering two guys,'" linebacker Myles Jack said. "Eventually, Sacksonville will return. I don't think it's at a standstill. I just think they're getting so much respect right now. They'll get their numbers."Jacksonville has become one of the favorites in the AFC following wins against the New York Giants and New England. A victory against the Titans would give them their first 3-0 start since 2004.Tennessee has won four of the last five meetings, including a series sweep last season, and has more victories (27) against Jacksonville than any team in the franchise's 24-year existence."It's intense, both teams on the rise that started at the bottom of the league and now both teams have been fighting for something (in) recent years," Titans linebacker Brian Orakpo said. "It's exciting. It's exciting for football. The AFC South is becoming very competitive again, and we're both glad to be on the winning side of the things."Here are some other things to know about the Titans and Jaguars:QB QUESTIONSTitans quarterback Marcus Mariota is still experiencing arm weakness along with numbness and tingling in two fingers after injuring his right elbow in the season opener. The symptoms affect the velocity and spin he gets on the football."The way that they explained it to me is like when you strum like a guitar string," Mariota said. "My nerve's kind of been strummed, and it's going to take its time to settle down."GABBERT RETURNSIf Mariota doesn't improve, backup Blaine Gabbert would make his second straight start. Either way, it will be Gabbert's first game back in Jacksonville since the Jaguars traded the 10th overall pick in the 2011 draft to San Francisco in May 2014."I've heard mixed reviews on his time here. I think the fans will kind of give him his warm welcome he deserves," Jack said sarcastically.Gabbert went 5-22 as Jacksonville's starter. But he's 1-0 against his first NFL team , notching a win last year in Arizona."I went out that game last year against Arizona, and Gabbert lit up the field," Jaguars linebacker Telvin Smith said. "I ain't forgot."PAYBACK TOURThe Jaguars are playing the second of three consecutive home games against teams that beat them in 2017 . New England ended Jacksonville's season in the AFC championship game. Tennessee swept both meetings. And next week's opponent, the New York Jets, knocked off the Jags in overtime."We're 1-0 on the Payback Tour," Jack said.Added cornerback A.J. Bouye: "We owe a lot of teams some whuppings."STREAKINGThe only game Tennessee has lost to Jacksonville in the past 34 months came on Christmas Eve 2016, when Mariota was knocked out of the game with a broken right leg. The Titans have won five straight overall in the AFC South, including a 20-17 victory last week against Houston that was buoyed by a touchdown on a fake punt."They don't respect us at all," Jackson said. "We're going to have to go out there and earn our respect."